(For comparison, the 1991-2020 total water year average is 9.60 maf.) Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Credit: Alex Hager. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. To view the most current reservoir elevation projections, click on: Lake Powell Elevation Projections. Projections at Lake Mead show there is a chance as high as 66% that water levels will decline to 1,025 feet by 2025, triggering a Tier 3 Shortage. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . What's the weather forecast for 2050? If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. 04:12 - Source: CNN Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. Fish & Wildlife Service Endangered Species Success Stories. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. google_ad_height = 600; Even Less water forecast to flow into Lake Powell this year, report says May NOAA runoff report predicts even less water will flow into Lake Powell this year than previously forecasted. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. The actual end of water year 2023 system storage may vary from this projection, primarily due to uncertainty regarding this seasons runoff and reservoir inflow. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb That projection is about 12 feet higher than the 2023 end-of-year mark in the bureau's forecast from December. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. levels. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. This level is actually .02 feet . Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Climate change also plays a part. monthly forecasts become more accurate. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. The lake is set to reach. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. WEco is funded by multiple donors. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. He said the soil moisture conditions were still well below normal across western Colorado, particularly in the southwest part of the state. An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. Detailed Map of Powell Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. 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