May 5, 2022 at 5:00 a.m. EDT. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. Racing Rsum: After winning two of five starts in his first two seasons of racing with a fourth-place finish in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile Handicap Presented by NYRA Bets in his stakes debut, Olympiad has emerged in 2022 as a rising star for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Beyer Sire Performance Standings offer a metric for measuring stallion performance beyond wins and earnings. Last year, he was on fire. The Beyer Speed Figures are an easy indicator to determine which horse will likely become the favorite to win in a race. Messier (7-1), Zandon (8-1), and Mo Donegal (8-1) are other top 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders according to oddsmakers. Pedigree: Olympiad is from the 13th crop of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown, by Gone West. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. The list since 1987 CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. The Win and Youre In Challenge Series offers the winners of specific individual races an expenses-paid starting spot for corresponding Breeders Cup races, and this blog will periodically take a closer look at one promising prospect. font-weight: bold; Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. The top-end speed runs deeper in this field, as well. They employ their judgment in analyzing any racing card and determining the track variant. The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. Speightstown has enjoyed success as a sire on dirt and turf and with sprinters as well as longer-distance runners. The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. Beyer Speed Figures have become an industry standard for the comparison of one horse's performance to another. Shancelot was trained by Jorge Navarro, whose years of doping horses under his care have been well documented. Before you place your wagers on the Derby, you'll want the skinny on the horses. Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. }. After the New York Times gave the book an unexpected rave review, Picking Winners attracted a wide audience. Still, Carrick was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95, while Robert Bruce got a 102. The third and final leg of the horse racing Triple Crown has arrived. In 10 of the last 12 Runs For The Roses, the winner posted a 100+ BSF in victory. 7 Winners on Monday! Only one horse has recorded a better Beyer speed figure than Flightline's 126 in the Pacific Classic, and none have matched his five-race string of excellence 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126. He may just be the type of horse who is so fast than he needs ample time between races. We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. Beyer Speed Figure: 86.7 Betting Favorites All time: 2 for 15: 2021 Winner: Modern Games (*) $2 Exacta: $93.60 $1 Trifecta: $958.70 The Malibu was the longest start of his career. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? Below, well use Beyer Speed Figures to determine the speed of the 2022 Kentucky Derby field. BSFs were created by Andy Beyer and are a system for rating the performance of horses in North America. Used 2014 Audi A6 from Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046. Periods of rain. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on . specialized hardware accelerators have been developed to facilitate high-speed computations for these data-intensive workloads. Taiba won as much the best, again earning a Beyer figure north of 100. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. Below well explore Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed Figure ratings. In 2019, Country House received the win with a 99 BSF. Since 1992, 27 of 30 Kentucky Derby winners have entered the race with a career-best Beyer speed figure of at least 95. (Coady Photography), A Closer Look at 2022 Breeders Cup Classic Hopeful Olympiad, Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. This could have inflated the Beyer Speed Figure earned by a horse in a race. In 1963, Taulbot sent his parallel-time chart to Beyer's Harvard classmate, Sheldon Kovitz, who adjusted it to account for velocity (e.g., a horse who runs six furlongs in 1:09 will run its seventh furlong faster than one who runs 1:13, and so forth). 97. Last year, he was on fire. Brisnet speed ratings are courtesy ofBrisnet. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. If the top contenders in a Belmont MSW field regularly run in the 70s, the race may be a good spot for first-time starters or other entrants with no recent form. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. That will be my guiding principle.. .tableizer-table th { Hes a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. GET OUR NEWSLETTER. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. by ericdecoster February 9, 202211 min read. NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Holy Bull earned a 121 in his career. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. This Saturday will see the 154th running of New York's horse racing classic, and Belmont Stakes odds have opened for betting. [4] Easy Goer and Sunday Silence both earned 124 speed figures in the 1989 Breeders' Cup Classic, which tied for the fastest speed figure earned in any Breeders' Cup race. 10 of the previous 12 Kentucky Derby winners posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 or more. I think there will be articles about this later in the week, that they've never seen a horse that is faster. Beyer explained that rating a horses ability on just the final time of the race was not good enough, because racing surfaces can vary from day to day based on the weather, how the track is maintained and other factors. He's a special horse. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. His Brisnet Ratings have improved from 76 to 98, and his TimeformUS numbers has gone from 98 to 116 in only three starts. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. 2022 Kentucky Derby Trail: By the Numbers. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. table.tableizer-table { . There's nothing written in stone, but I am mindful of the fact that I need to be careful.. How do they stand up to last years group and what can we expect from these 20 horses? I have said that everything is on the table. Anything can happen in a 20-horse race, but this is one example of consistent, positive past performances. Odds are estimates, as the opening morning line odds will not be released by Churchill Downs until the post position draw a few days before the first Saturday in May. Beyer's subsequent research added the last piece of the puzzle. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. Owned by WinStar . The race got a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Please visit gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on responsible gaming. Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. Kentucky Derby 2022: How do the speed figures stack up. Chance of rain 100%. Un Ojo Ethereal Road and Happy Jack have the lowest career-best BSFs. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. border: 1px solid #CCC; In the Demoiselle, she ran a Beyer Speed Figure of 79 and an Equibase Speed Figure of 80, several lengths slower than the figures earned by the country's top 2-year-old filly, Echo Zulu. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back. Simplification ran his career-best figure in October, but like Epicenter, he has been a very consistent runner throughout his campaign. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . His Carter victory earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 114. Danzing Candy ran steadily improving figures over his first four races (72-89-92-100) before falling apart in the Santa Anita Derby - when he set a wicked pace over a sloppy track and faded to . Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses1 //logo version 1.0.2 - Jun 2022 TVG .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-1 { fill: #000001; } .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-2 { fill: #fff; } .cls-TVG-1a-svg-logo-3 { fill: #009c58; } Visit TVG$200 BONUSIf Your Bet LosesTVG ReviewGet Your First Single-Horse Win Wager BackUp to $200 If You LoseUse Promo Code: 200TVGPLAY NOW. Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. There is so much to look forward to out there.. He will now try to win the Derby in only his third start, which seems preposterous, but it seemed preposterous to win the . Top Beyer Speed Figures. Just how fast is a certain crop of horses in the Kentucky Derby? Combining BSFs with other metrics like Brisnet Speed Figures and final furlong times gives us a more complete picture of this field. When that venture folded, Daily Racing Form incorporated the Figures into its past performances beginning in April, 1992. Reach for the superlatives: Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat after a truly astonishing performance in the Pacific Classic. So it's possible for a horse to earn a number that is higher than a horse who finished ahead. Epicenter (+400) ran his own 102 BSF race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). The Beyer numbers trace their roots back to the work of Ray Taulbot's parallel-time chart (1959), with Beyer pointing out the flaw of adding a fixed amount of time to slow or fast times at other distances, driving the numbers out of proportion. After reaching the WIAA Division 1 girls basketball state . Speed Figures: Un Ojo improved his best Equibase Speed Figure 14 points to a 91 for the Rebel Stakes, and he boosted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to an 84. Among those not at the top of the speed figure scale, only Creative Minister is worth giving a second look. No one else has topped 96. They are meant to represent the racing merit of an Australian horse. }. .tableizer-table td { table.tableizer-table { Considering how poorly the Gazelle entrants ran in the Kentucky Oaks, it seems that the Gazelle was painfully weak this year, making the Wood look better than it really was. We knew Olympiad was fast he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a mile in :12.53, according to Equibase, was especially impressive. Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline (Tapit) is really, really, fast. She turned in her first workout on the Churchill Downs surface on Saturday, April 30, going four furlongs in 47.80 seconds. That . font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? Beyer Figures became part of Daily Racing Form past performances in 1992. ECLIPSE AWARD EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE LEADERS LISTS 2023. Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. However, that came after the disqualification of Maximum Security. That's the case for this year's Wood Memorial, where pacesetter Early Voting got a slightly higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than Mo Donegal. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. Messier notched his 103 in the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 6. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Once horses have built a figure history, Beyer projects a figure based on the figures earned by the horses in the race, in place of the par, making the numbers much more accurate. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! The most exciting two minutes in sports doubles as a betting bonanza as well. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. In Betting Thoroughbreds, Steve Davidowitz claimed that (in 1974), "the top-figure horse wins 35 percent of the time, at a slight loss for every $2.00 wagered." [15][16], Beyer speculated that had his figures existed in 1973, Secretariat would have scored 139 in his classic 1973 win at the Belmont Stakes. Indy, earned her lone win at 1 1/16 miles and produced Hungry Island and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners around two turns. Capped a run of three wins in four starts at Fair Grounds with a score in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, earning a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 102. Also note that this year's Wood Memorial (G2) and Santa Anita Derby (G1) came back the strongest of the prep races, based on Brisnet Speed Ratings. He's advising bettors to consider speed figures and track conditions prior to wagering. The ultimate objective is to have every number express the quality of a horses performance. Bet with your head, not over it. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. When many people see the name of a champion sprinter as a sire, they think his best runners will be fast and precocious. To me, he's a gift.. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. font-weight: bold; 3-Year-Old Female Older Male Older Female. Medaglia dOro and A.P. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. Sure, there are some extremely talented horses in the Longines Classic division including, among others, Hill n Dale Metropolitan Handicap winner Flightline, Pegasus World Cup victor Life Is Good, and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline winner Country Grammer, but Olympiad has cemented his status as a top contender and a budding star for owners Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 121. . .tableizer-table td { For the purpose of this particular preview we'll just . It is interesting that the 94 Beyer Speed Figure that Secret Oath earned in the Kentucky Oaks puts her right in the mix with the other top contenders. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. A look at the top Kentucky Derby contenders for the 2022 race heading into the March prep schedule, with Baffert still banned and new leaders in the points rankings. 60 Broad St. This implies that Secretariat would have had the highest ever Beyer speed figure. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. Messier's career high of 127 and Taiba's best of 125 top the field. They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. University of Louisville Equine Industry Program - Get a Career in Horse Racing! For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. When handicapping a horse race, there are more variables than one can count, but using the Beyer Speed Figures will get you headed in the right direction. Beyer Speed Figures had him with a top of 79 as a 2-year-old, but he earned a 94 for the San Vicente and a 98 for the San Felipe, so he's . . . In 1991, The Racing Times, an upstart newspaper founded by Steven Crist, put Beyer Speed Figures into print for the first time. Epicenter might have grabbed the weekend headlines by winning the Grade 2 Risen Star and picking up 50 qualifying points for the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Jerardi is also part of the Beyer speed figure team, a system that was designed by legendary Washington Post racing columnist Andy Beyer. Speightstown took some time as a racehorse to come around, winning champion sprinter honors as a 6-year-old, and many of his best runners have improved significantly with age: Tamarkuz won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at 6; Haynesfield won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at 4; and Flagstaff became a Grade 1 winner at age 7. Un Ojo notched only an 84 Beyer Speed Figure for his upset win in the Rebel (G2). None of the entrants in 2010's field has yet earned a number higher than 101. Only Creative Minister is worth giving a second look gambleaware.co.uk or gamcare.org.uk for guidelines on gaming... Determine which horse will likely become the favorite to win in a race. Not at the Beyer Speed Figures and track conditions prior to wagering the Kentucky Derby Soaring Empire, Stakes! Carrick was assigned a Beyer figure North of 100 or more given class at Thistledown is 59 bettors! Also part of the 2022 Kentucky Derby sensation Rich 2022: How do the figure! 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